Buckle up, hoops fans—the Mountain West Conference is poised to steal the spotlight in the upcoming 2025-26 men's college basketball season, and it's got one top analytics guru already buzzing with excitement! Imagine this: just weeks before tip-off, a powerhouse league like the Mountain West earning serious props from a respected rating system, even amidst a whirlwind of roster changes. It's not just hype; it's a signal that the underdogs might be ready to roar. But here's where it gets controversial... Can mid-major schools really hang with the big boys, or is this just preseason optimism destined to fade? Stick around, because we're diving deep into the details that could redefine college hoops.
Picture the scene: We're knee-deep in football glory, with tailgates and touchdowns dominating the headlines, yet the basketball world is heating up. The 2025-26 season kicks off in less than three weeks, and despite the usual chaos of players jumping ship via the transfer portal and the lure of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, KenPom—a widely followed analytical tool that ranks teams based on efficiency metrics and strength of schedule—has released its initial projections. For those new to this, KenPom isn't just a guess; it's a data-driven system that evaluates how teams perform on both ends of the court, factoring in things like adjusted offensive and defensive ratings to predict success. And guess what? The Mountain West (MW) is getting a ton of love, with a lineup that looks surprisingly strong on paper.
According to KenPom's preseason rankings (available at https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=MWC&y=2026, fresh from last weekend), the MW boasts two teams cracking the top 50, five in the top 80, seven in the top 100, and nine in the top 160. That's no small feat for a conference often seen as a stepping stone rather than a destination. Here's the breakdown, ranked by their projected KenPom spots:
- San Diego State (No. 30) – A perennial contender that's consistently punched above its weight class.
- Utah State (42) – Known for its gritty, high-energy style that wears down opponents.
- Boise State (53) – Broncos fans, get ready; this squad could be flying high.
- Colorado State (79) – Rams are rebuilding with fresh talent, but they've got potential.
- Grand Canyon (80) – This upstart has been exceeding expectations lately, with a history of turning heads.
- Nevada (92) – Wolf Pack are hungry for a breakthrough.
- New Mexico (97) – Lobos bring a mix of experience and youthful vigor.
- UNLV (107) – Rebels might surprise with their athleticism.
- Wyoming (155) – Cowboys are in a transitional phase, but don't count them out.
- San Jose State (160) – Spartans could emerge as dark horses.
- Fresno State (190) – Bulldogs have some rebuilding to do.
- Air Force (257) – Falcons are facing an uphill battle but show flashes of promise.
To put this in perspective, KenPom projects several MW teams to finish at or above .500 in conference play, placing the league sixth overall among conferences. That's right behind heavyweights like the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, and ACC. For beginners, .500 means a 50-50 win-loss record, and in college sports, that's often a benchmark for tournament contention. What's intriguing—and this is the part most people miss—is how narrow the gap is between the MW and other mid-tier conferences. Last season, the MW edged out the West Coast Conference (WCC) by a solid 3.82 NET rating points (NET measures a team's strength based on wins against other strong teams). This year, the preseason difference between the MW and the seventh-ranked Atlantic 10 (A10) is a mere 1.03 points. In simple terms, the MW's projected dominance is razor-thin, meaning a few upsets or standout performances could catapult them higher—or send them tumbling. It highlights how unpredictable college basketball can be, where a single star player or hot streak can shift the entire landscape.
The conference is retaining some key players, like talented forwards Miles Byrd, Magoon Gwath, and Mason Falslev, who are expected to anchor their teams with scoring, defense, and leadership. But let's be real—turnover is the name of the game. The MW is losing 13 of its top 14 leading scorers, nine of its top-11 rebounders, and 16 of its top-18 players by minutes from last year. This isn't shocking news; the transfer portal and NIL rules, designed to give players more freedom and compensation, are geared toward bigger programs with deeper pockets. Mid-majors like the MW often serve as launching pads, where young athletes gain experience before moving to power conferences. For example, think of how players like Draymond Green or Steph Curry used lesser-known leagues as stepping stones to NBA stardom. This means courtside, we'll see a parade of new faces, and on the sidelines, fresh coaching staffs ready to shake things up.
Yet, despite the upheaval, it's heartening to witness the Mountain West earning this early respect from KenPom. That said, these are just projections—educated guesses based on data—and they could be way off in weeks or months when real games start. The league is aiming for multiple NCAA Tournament bids for the eighth year in a row, including four or more for the fifth consecutive season. Grand Canyon, in particular, adds extra flair; they've snagged NCAA invites in four of the last five years and racked up seven seasons with 22 or more wins since 2014-15. They're a prime example of how a mid-major can punch above its weight, turning the tournament into a realistic goal rather than a pipe dream.
San Diego State is almost certainly in the hunt, but who else will shine? Boise State? Utah State? Or perhaps an underdog like Nevada or UNLV? And here's a thought-provoking twist: Is the transfer portal leveling the playing field, giving mid-majors a fighting chance, or is it widening the gap by funneling talent to the rich and famous? Do you think conferences like the MW can sustainably compete with the big leagues, or are they doomed to perpetual underdog status? Share your predictions and opinions in the comments below—we'd love to hear your takes, agreements, or disagreements!
